Newfoundland and Labrador
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Dropdowns and Polls
CDNProjections Newfoundland and Labrador Electoral Model
15-20-24
(42.38%)
(LIB Maj: 38%)
(LIB Min: 35%)
(LIB Maj: 38%)
(LIB Min: 35%)
11-15-19
(38.06%)
(PC Min: 18%)
3-4-6
(16.34%)
0-1-2
(3.22%)
(Tie: 9%)
Last Updated: January 31, 2025
Party Floor-Projection-Party Ceiling
Percent of the Vote
Chance at Forming Government
Avalon
10
(42.25%)
5
(32.95%)
3
(22.06%)
0
(2.74%)
Central and Eastern Newfoundland
7
(49.56%)
5
(42.64%)
0
(6.46%)
0
(1.35%)
West and Labrador
5
(41.51%)
3
(36.96%)
1
(14.04%)
1
(7.49%)
Map
Race for 21
Cartwright-L'Anse
Liberal+75.41
(±28.41)
Liberal+75.41
(±28.41)
Burgeo-Poile
Liberal+58.26
(±24.05)
Liberal+58.26
(±24.05)
Harbour Grace
Liberal+44.37
(±20.64)
Liberal+44.37
(±20.64)
Waterford Valley
Liberal+38.51
(±18.03)
Liberal+38.51
(±18.03)
Gander
Liberal+35.02
(±20.13)
Liberal+35.02
(±20.13)
Fortune-La Hune
Liberal+29.57
(±19.34)
Liberal+29.57
(±19.34)
Carbonear-Trinity
Liberal+29.38
(±17.93)
Liberal+29.38
(±17.93)
St. John's West
Liberal+23.89
(±14.97)
Liberal+23.89
(±14.97)
Corner Brook
Liberal+21.02
(±19.17)
Liberal+21.02
(±19.17)
Humber-Morne
Liberal+18.56
(±18.1)
Liberal+18.56
(±18.1)
Mt Pearl South
Liberal+0.02
(±8)
Liberal+0.02
(±8)
Mt Pearl North
Liberal+3.25
(±14.87)
Liberal+3.25
(±14.87)
Lewis-Twilling
Liberal+3.72
(±17.86)
Liberal+3.72
(±17.86)
Placentia-Mary's
Liberal+5.59
(±18.15)
Liberal+5.59
(±18.15)
Virginia Waters
Liberal+7.4
(±14.69)
Liberal+7.4
(±14.69)
Concep Bay East
Liberal+8.81
(±12.61)
Liberal+8.81
(±12.61)
Windsor Lake
Liberal+10.2
(±14.1)
Liberal+10.2
(±14.1)
St. George-Humber
Liberal+11.46
(±16.2)
Liberal+11.46
(±16.2)
Burin-Grand Bank
Liberal+12.77
(±17.51)
Liberal+12.77
(±17.51)
Lake Melville
Liberal+14.07
(±7.11)
Liberal+14.07
(±7.11)
Ferryland
PC-6.29
(±16.8)
PC-6.29
(±16.8)
Topsail-Paradise
PC-6.42
(±14.63)
PC-6.42
(±14.63)
St. Barbe-L'Anse
PC-6.55
(±18.7)
PC-6.55
(±18.7)
Harbour Main
PC-10.62
(±16.75)
PC-10.62
(±16.75)
Mt Scio
NDP-12.64
(±14.12)
NDP-12.64
(±14.12)
Fogo-Cape Freels
PC-13.73
(±17.77)
PC-13.73
(±17.77)
Terra Nova
PC-18.45
(±18.28)
PC-18.45
(±18.28)
Exploits
PC-18.5
(±18.96)
PC-18.5
(±18.96)
Concep Bay South
PC-18.59
(±17)
PC-18.59
(±17)
Humber-Bay Is
Other-20.59
(±10.89)
Other-20.59
(±10.89)
Torngat Mountains
PC-62.97
(±25.36)
PC-62.97
(±25.36)
Labrador West
NDP-59.39
(±23.2)
NDP-59.39
(±23.2)
St. John's Ctr
NDP-54.86
(±23.39)
NDP-54.86
(±23.39)
Bonavista
PC-48
(±20.72)
PC-48
(±20.72)
St. John's East
NDP-39.08
(±20.35)
NDP-39.08
(±20.35)
Baie Verte
PC-32.56
(±20.17)
PC-32.56
(±20.17)
Stephenville-Port
PC-30.52
(±19.53)
PC-30.52
(±19.53)
Cape St. Francis
PC-30.06
(±16.65)
PC-30.06
(±16.65)
Grand Falls
PC-28.86
(±19.84)
PC-28.86
(±19.84)
Placentia West
PC-20.7
(±18.39)
PC-20.7
(±18.39)
Bolded seat is the Tipping Point
Simulator
Simulate a Newfoundland and Labrador election by changing the voting intentions in the first table
It is important to note that the simulator does not include all model shifts and will not be identical to my real projection