The Record

This page shows the record of my projections since creation in 2021

By-Elections

Modeler Comparison

Totals (11 elections, 1,140 total ridings)


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
88.95% (1,014)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
11.05% (126)

*MoE results have been counted since 2024, so totals do not include these stats, which is why in this chart it's only correct/incorrect

2025 Ontario General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
86.3% (107)
Incorrect, Inside MoE
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, but the result within the margin of error
6.5% (8)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, with the winner outside the projected margin of error
7.3% (9)

2024 Nova Scotia General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
94.5% (52)
Incorrect, Inside MoE
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, but the result within the margin of error
5.5% (3)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, with the winner outside the projected margin of error
0% (0)

2024 Saskatchewan General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
93.4% (57)
Incorrect, Inside MoE
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, but the result within the margin of error
0% (0)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, with the winner outside the projected margin of error
6.6% (4)

2024 New Brunswick General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
85.7% (42)
Incorrect, Inside MoE
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, but the result within the margin of error
8.2% (4)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, with the winner outside the projected margin of error
6.1% (3)

2024 British Columbia General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
82.8% (77)
Incorrect, Inside MoE
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, but the result within the margin of error
7.5% (7)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected, with the winner outside the projected margin of error
9.7% (9)

2023 Manitoba General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
86.0% (49)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
14.0% (8)

2023 Alberta General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
90.8% (79)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
9.2% (8)

2023 Prince Edward Island General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
85.2% (23)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
14.8% (4)

2022 Quebec General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
94.4% (118)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
5.6% (7)

2022 Ontario General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
85.5% (106)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
14.5% (18)

2021 Canada General Election


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
89.9% (304)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
10.1% (34)

Totals (51 by-elections)


Correct
Winner in the riding correctly projected
72.5% (37)
Incorrect
Winner in the riding incorrectly projected
27.5% (14)

Record against 338canada and Poliwave

Election CDNprojections 338canada Poliwave
Totals 89% 89% Unpublished
Ontario '25 86% 83% 85%
Nova Scotia '24 95% 98% 98%
Saskatchewan '24 93% 92% 92%
New Brunswick '24 86% 84% 90%
British Columbia '24 83% 84% 86%
Manitoba '23 86% 91%
Alberta '23 91% 94%
PEI '23 85%
Quebec '22 94% 94%
Ontario '22 86% 87%
Canada '21 90% 92%
Most accurate, correct winner 2nd most accurate, correct winner Least accurate, correct winner
Most accurate, incorrect winner 2nd most accurate, incorrect winner Least accurate, incorrect winner