Manitoba
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Dropdowns and Polls
CDNProjections Manitoba Electoral Model
35-43-46
(55.86%)
(NDP Maj: >99%)
(NDP Maj: >99%)
10-13-21
(34.03%)
(PC Maj: <1%)
0-1-1
(5.70%)
0-0-0
(2.25%)
0-0-0
(1.59%)
0-0-0
(0.57%)
Last Updated: January 31, 2025
Party Floor-Projection-Party Ceiling
Percent of the Vote
Chance at Forming Government
Rest of Manitoba
13
(47.34%)
12
(42.70%)
0
(5.56%)
0
(4.40%)
Winnipeg
30
(59.24%)
1
(29.92%)
1
(6.66%)
0
(4.18%)
Map
Race for 29
Flin Flon
NDP+67.83
(±14.17)
NDP+67.83
(±14.17)
Notre Dame
NDP+67.48
(±13.56)
NDP+67.48
(±13.56)
Point Douglas
NDP+66.12
(±13.76)
NDP+66.12
(±13.76)
Fort Rouge
NDP+63.97
(±13.39)
NDP+63.97
(±13.39)
Union Station
NDP+62.98
(±13.41)
NDP+62.98
(±13.41)
Wolseley
NDP+60.85
(±12.47)
NDP+60.85
(±12.47)
Thompson
NDP+59.09
(±13.25)
NDP+59.09
(±13.25)
The Pas-Kameesak
NDP+58.35
(±13.13)
NDP+58.35
(±13.13)
St. Vital
NDP+42.49
(±11.87)
NDP+42.49
(±11.87)
River Heights
NDP+42.94
(±9.88)
NDP+42.94
(±9.88)
Elmwood
NDP+43.1
(±11.24)
NDP+43.1
(±11.24)
The Maples
NDP+46.01
(±11.46)
NDP+46.01
(±11.46)
Concordia
NDP+46.4
(±12.27)
NDP+46.4
(±12.27)
St. Johns
NDP+46.96
(±10.5)
NDP+46.96
(±10.5)
St. James
NDP+47.16
(±12.32)
NDP+47.16
(±12.32)
Keewatinook
NDP+48.44
(±12.31)
NDP+48.44
(±12.31)
St. Boniface
NDP+55.34
(±11.58)
NDP+55.34
(±11.58)
Fort Garry
NDP+42.25
(±11.12)
NDP+42.25
(±11.12)
Brandon East
NDP+40.69
(±11.72)
NDP+40.69
(±11.72)
Burrows
NDP+37.2
(±10.19)
NDP+37.2
(±10.19)
Transcona
NDP+33.76
(±11.52)
NDP+33.76
(±11.52)
Dauphin
NDP+31.1
(±11.37)
NDP+31.1
(±11.37)
Fort Richmond
NDP+30.47
(±11.07)
NDP+30.47
(±11.07)
Riel
NDP+27.76
(±11.12)
NDP+27.76
(±11.12)
Southdale
NDP+25.82
(±10.32)
NDP+25.82
(±10.32)
Brandon West
NDP+25.19
(±10.35)
NDP+25.19
(±10.35)
Kirkfield Park
NDP+16.55
(±9.68)
NDP+16.55
(±9.68)
Kildonan-River East
NDP+17.69
(±10.67)
NDP+17.69
(±10.67)
Rossmere
NDP+18.91
(±10.24)
NDP+18.91
(±10.24)
Interlake-Gimli
NDP+20.18
(±10.17)
NDP+20.18
(±10.17)
Dawson Trail
NDP+20.54
(±9.95)
NDP+20.54
(±9.95)
Assiniboia
NDP+20.95
(±10.68)
NDP+20.95
(±10.68)
Radisson
NDP+21.26
(±10.96)
NDP+21.26
(±10.96)
Selkirk
NDP+23.1
(±10.99)
NDP+23.1
(±10.99)
Seine River
NDP+24.74
(±10.78)
NDP+24.74
(±10.78)
McPhillips
NDP+14.36
(±10.53)
NDP+14.36
(±10.53)
Lagimodière
NDP+12.11
(±10.48)
NDP+12.11
(±10.48)
Waverley
NDP+11.91
(±9.73)
NDP+11.91
(±9.73)
Springfield-Ritchot
NDP+8.54
(±10.03)
NDP+8.54
(±10.03)
Red River North
NDP+8.24
(±10.54)
NDP+8.24
(±10.54)
Tuxedo
NDP+7.38
(±9.43)
NDP+7.38
(±9.43)
Lac du Bonnet
NDP+4.01
(±8.73)
NDP+4.01
(±8.73)
Roblin
NDP+1.63
(±10.25)
NDP+1.63
(±10.25)
Riding Mountain
PC-3.43
(±10.13)
PC-3.43
(±10.13)
Midland
PC-23.96
(±10.42)
PC-23.96
(±10.42)
Tyndall Park
Liberal-21.64
(±8.98)
Liberal-21.64
(±8.98)
La Verendrye
PC-19.88
(±8.98)
PC-19.88
(±8.98)
Agassiz
PC-19.73
(±9.24)
PC-19.73
(±9.24)
Spruce Woods
PC-15.22
(±9.5)
PC-15.22
(±9.5)
Turtle Mountain
PC-11.06
(±8.08)
PC-11.06
(±8.08)
Lakeside
PC-10.09
(±9.71)
PC-10.09
(±9.71)
Swan River
PC-3.93
(±9.92)
PC-3.93
(±9.92)
Portage la Prairie
PC-3.83
(±8.36)
PC-3.83
(±8.36)
Morden-Winkler
PC-25.91
(±10.74)
PC-25.91
(±10.74)
Fort Whyte
PC-33.76
(±9.45)
PC-33.76
(±9.45)
Borderland
PC-40.18
(±10.87)
PC-40.18
(±10.87)
Steinbach
PC-40.54
(±11.11)
PC-40.54
(±11.11)
Bolded seat is the Tipping Point
Simulator
Simulate a Manitoba election by changing the voting intentions in the first table
It is important to note that the simulator does not include all model shifts and will not be identical to my real projection