Ontario

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Regional Results

Squares Chart

Simulator

Dropdowns and Polls

CDNProjections Ontario Electoral Model

72-85-97 (43.07%) (PC Maj: >99%)
9-18-31 (27.91%) (LIB Maj: <1%)
11-17-23 (20.09%) (NDP Maj: <1%)
1-2-3 (5.03%)
0-1-2 (3.90%) (Tie: <1%)

Last Updated: February 26, 2025
Party Floor-Projection-Party Ceiling
Percent of the Vote
Chance at Forming Government
Vote percentages (within 3.22%) and Seat Ranges are correct 19 times out of 20

Toronto (416)

11 (34.35%)
9 (36.27%)
5 (22.96%)
0 (3.98%)
0 (2.44%)

Greater Golden Horseshoe

35 (46.36%)
3 (29.19%)
3 (17.01%)
1 (3.67%)
0 (3.76%)

Southwest Ontario

18 (45.28%)
2 (20.04%)
2 (9.41%)
0 (6.03%)
0 (19.24%)

East

11 (41.91%)
6 (33.28%)
2 (16.95%)
0 (4.16%)
0 (3.70%)

Northern Ontario

10 (42.65%)
3 (28.27%)
0 (17.64%)
0 (7.71%)
0 (3.73%)

Map

Race for 62

Ren.-Nip.-Pem.
PC+50.89
(±12.53)
Leeds-Grenville
PC+48.03
(±12.65)
H-Kawartha-B
PC+47.47
(±11.56)
Kenora-Rainy
PC+44.9
(±12.51)
Sto.-Dun.-S Gle.
PC+44.22
(±12.15)
York-Simcoe
PC+43.68
(±11.66)
Elgin-Mid.
PC+42.79
(±12.47)
Nipissing
PC+41.88
(±11.94)
Lan.-Front.
PC+32.99
(±9.74)
Simcoe North
PC+33.32
(±9.84)
Simcoe-Grey
PC+34.16
(±11.08)
Barrie-Innisfil
PC+34.46
(±10.01)
Etbk North
PC+36.68
(±11.82)
Hastings
PC+38.05
(±10.62)
Sarnia-Lamb.
PC+39.56
(±11.12)
Lam.-Kent-Mid.
PC+40.28
(±11.41)
Oxford
PC+41.09
(±10.87)
Huron-Bruce
PC+32.41
(±10.47)
Perth-Well.
PC+31.93
(±9.32)
Mrkhm-Union.
PC+31.85
(±12.33)
Niagara West
PC+31.59
(±9.15)
King-Vaughan
PC+31.46
(±12.33)
Whitby
PC+30.89
(±10.07)
Essex
PC+30.57
(±10.54)
Chath.-Kent
PC+29.91
(±9.58)
Thornhill
PC+29.61
(±11.54)
Scar North
PC+23.83
(±11.16)
Durham
PC+24.24
(±9.36)
A-OR-RH
PC+25.72
(±11.32)
Brant
PC+26.91
(±8.74)
Bruce-Grey
PC+28.47
(±9.51)
Bay of Quinte
PC+28.57
(±9.7)
Vaughan
PC+28.67
(±11.97)
Flam.-Glam.
PC+28.72
(±9.59)
Timmins
PC+29.56
(±10.98)
Duff.-Cal.
PC+23.49
(±8.67)
Northumberland
PC+23.27
(±10)
Welling.-Halt.
PC+23.13
(±7.44)
Ktchnr South
PC+21.71
(±7.7)
Carleton
PC+18.36
(±9.06)
Richmond Hill
PC+18.21
(±11.46)
Windsor-Tec.
PC+17.8
(±8.77)
Bptn South
PC+17.24
(±9.27)
Bptn East
PC+16.31
(±8.92)
Oakville North
PC+12.48
(±10.35)
Mrkhm-Stouff.
PC+12.76
(±10.61)
Bptn North
PC+13.61
(±9.06)
Bptn Centre
PC+13.91
(±8.72)
York Centre
PC+14.7
(±9.68)
Pick.-Uxb.
PC+15.59
(±8.8)
Scar Rouge
PC+15.74
(±9.26)
Ktchnr-Con.
PC+15.82
(±7.21)
Scar Agin.
PC+15.96
(±11.37)
Bptn West
PC+11.41
(±9.03)
Mush.-Bay
PC+11.4
(±9.9)
Etbk Centre
PC+11.26
(±10.22)
Niagara Centre
PC+11.1
(±9.06)
Oshawa
PC+11.03
(±11.22)
Mrkhm-Thorn.
PC+10.75
(±11.16)
Burlington
PC+10.52
(±8.79)
Barrie-Spring
PC+10.25
(±9.55)
Hmltn East
PC+9.43
(±6.89)
Hmltn Mt.
PC+7.01
(±6.75)
PS-Muskoka
PC+7.04
(±9.13)
Willowdale
PC+7.09
(±10.14)
Etbk-Lakeshore
PC+7.09
(±8.95)
Scar Centre
PC+7.31
(±8.53)
Peterborough
PC+7.71
(±8.47)
Miss Malton
PC+7.73
(±9.25)
Newmarket
PC+8.04
(±9.71)
Alg.-Man.
PC+8.94
(±7.11)
Tim.-Coch.
PC+6.19
(±8.96)
Cambridge
PC+5.66
(±7.43)
Ajax
PC+5.62
(±9.69)
TB-Superior
PC+5.27
(±7.85)
DV North
PC+5.17
(±10.44)
Milton
PC+4.95
(±10.41)
Lndn North
PC+4.5
(±7.46)
Oakville
PC+4.11
(±10.49)
York-Weston
PC+3.62
(±8.03)
Waterloo
NDP-0.81
(±7.32)
Hmltn West
NDP-0.81
(±7.48)
Miss Erin
Liberal-0.41
(±9.56)
Ottawa West
NDP-0.19
(±7.96)
Miss Ctr
PC+0.85
(±9.57)
Miss Street.
PC+1.9
(±10.19)
Sault
PC+2.56
(±9.47)
Gle.-Pre.-Rus.
PC+2.75
(±10.23)
TB-Atikokan
PC+3.45
(±8.41)
St. Catharines
NDP-1
(±7.7)
Univ.-Rose.
Liberal-1.01
(±6.56)
Spadina-York
NDP-1.47
(±8.1)
Miss Lake.
Liberal-1.76
(±10.27)
Hmltn Centre
Other-2.23
(±5.37)
Sudbury
NDP-2.34
(±7.43)
Windsor West
NDP-2.37
(±11.32)
Lndn West
NDP-2.76
(±8.1)
Ktchnr Centre
Green-3.1
(±5.44)
Niagara Falls
NDP-6.85
(±10.01)
Hald.-Norf.
Other-5.28
(±8.49)
Kiiwetinoong
NDP-5.15
(±9.59)
Toronto Centre
Liberal-4.49
(±8.91)
Ottawa Centre
NDP-4.15
(±7.83)
Lndn-Fansh.
NDP-3.87
(±8.45)
Scar SW
NDP-3.84
(±8.43)
Nepean
Liberal-3.34
(±8.39)
Kanata-Carl.
Liberal-3.26
(±8.33)
Humber Riv.
Liberal-7.03
(±8.32)
DV West
Liberal-7.77
(±10.56)
Eg.-Law.
Liberal-11.52
(±12.92)
Parkdale-High
NDP-12.36
(±7.44)
Toronto-Paul's
Liberal-16.14
(±8.87)
Beaches
Liberal-16.81
(±7.64)
Miss East
Liberal-16.98
(±10.83)
DV East
Liberal-17
(±10.09)
Scar Guild.
Liberal-17.7
(±9.89)
Guelph
Green-36.12
(±10.07)
Davenport
NDP-34.48
(±10.95)
Ottawa-Vanier
Liberal-32.72
(±9.82)
Toronto-Dan.
NDP-32.26
(±10.59)
Kingston
Liberal-30.93
(±10.02)
Orléans
Liberal-27.29
(±10.92)
Ottawa South
Liberal-25.54
(±9.93)
Nickel Belt
NDP-18.49
(±9.46)

Bolded seat is the Tipping Point

Simulator

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