Ontario
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Dropdowns and Polls
CDNProjections Ontario Electoral Model
78-91-101
(48.39%)
14-21-31
(16.57%)
6-9-23
(26.83%)
1-2-3
(5.43%)
0-1-2
(2.79%)
Last Updated: July 25, 2025
Party Floor-Projection-Party Ceiling
Percent of the Vote
CDNProjections Chance of Forming Government
(PC Maj: >100%)
Last Updated: July 25, 2025
Chance at Forming Government
Toronto (416)
13
(37.61%)
7
(21.97%)
5
(35.90%)
0
(3.06%)
0
(1.46%)
Greater Golden Horseshoe
36
(53.01%)
6
(13.22%)
0
(29.04%)
0
(2.78%)
0
(1.95%)
Southwest Ontario
17
(49.74%)
5
(16.14%)
2
(12.04%)
1
(5.57%)
0
(16.51%)
East
13
(47.48%)
4
(31.68%)
2
(15.67%)
0
(2.79%)
0
(2.38%)
Northern Ontario
12
(51.02%)
1
(23.38%)
0
(14.95%)
0
(8.83%)
0
(1.82%)
Map
Simulator
Simulate an Ontario election by changing the voting intentions in the first table
It is important to note that the simulator does not include all model shifts and will not be identical to my real projection