Canada

CDNProjections Federal Electoral Model

111-143-190 (38.93%)

107-140-184 (36.76%)

25-37-53 (8.16%)

10-21-31 (10.84%)

1-2-3 (3.08%)

0-0-0 (2.23%)

Last Updated: January 18, 2026
Party Floor-Projection-Party Ceiling
Percent of the Vote

CDNProjections Chance of Forming Government

(CON Maj: 2.3%) (CON Min: 50.7%)

(LIB Maj: 1.0%) (LIB Min: 46.0%)

Last Updated: January 18, 2026
Chance at Forming Government

Map

Simulator

Simulate a Federal election by changing the voting intentions in the first table
It is important to note that the simulator does not include all model shifts and will not be identical to my real projection