CDNProjections

CDNProjections Scarborough Southwest By-Election Model

Fatima Shaban 47.03% (98%)

Asm Tarun 25.70% (1%)

Ahsanul Hafiz 22.65% (<1%)

Mark Bekkering 2.82% (<1%)

All Others 1.80% (<1%)

Percent of the Vote (Chance of Winning)

Last Updated: August 5, 2026