CDNProjections

CDNProjections Scarborough Southwest By-Election Model

Fatima Shaban 40.56% (86%)

Asm Tarun 29.52% (13%)

Ahsanul Hafiz 24.76% (2%)

Mark Bekkering 3.29% (<1%)

All Others 1.86% (<1%)

Percent of the Vote (Chance of Winning)

Last Updated: August 19, 2026