CDNProjections

CDNProjections Calgary-Shaw By-Election Model

Mike Derry 54.69% (97.8%)

Kyle Campbell 38.34% (2.2%)

Generic Wildrose 2.45% (<0.1%)

Kyle Joseph 1.26% (<0.1%)

John Roggeveen 1.12% (<0.1%)

Generic Green 0.93% (<0.1%)

All Others 0.65% (<0.1%)

Generic Republican 0.55% (<0.1%)

Percent of the Vote (Chance of Winning)

Last Updated: August 23, 2026