CDNProjections

CDNProjections York-Simcoe By-Election Model

Susan Lahey 49.28% (98%)

Naomi Davison 35.29% (2%)

Bobby Nikmard 7.18% (<1%)

All Others 4.31% (<1%)

Matt Pearce 3.94% (<1%)

Percent of the Vote (Chance of Winning)

Last Updated: August 5, 2026