CDNProjections

CDNProjections York-Simcoe By-Election Model

Susan Lahey 53.23% (99%)

Naomi Davison 32.84% (1%)

Bobby Nikmard 6.25% (<1%)

Matt Pearce 3.89% (<1%)

All Others 3.78% (<1%)

Percent of the Vote (Chance of Winning)

Last Updated: August 19, 2026